The Red River Rivalry is back — but this year, one key injury could tilt the balance of power in a major way.
The Cotton Bowl will once again be the battleground for one of college football’s most storied rivalries. On Saturday, No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0) faces Texas (3-2) in the 121st edition of the Red River Showdown, and all eyes are on the quarterback situation for both teams.
Oklahoma’s John Mateer is recovering from hand surgery, and his availability remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Texas’ Arch Manning is preparing for his first-ever start in this heated rivalry. Can the Longhorns bounce back from a surprising loss to Florida? And more importantly, can they handle the pressure of playing in one of the most intense atmospheres in college football?
These questions will be answered on the field, but in the meantime, experts from The Dallas Morning News have weighed in with their predictions. Here’s what they think will happen — and why.
Lia Assimakopoulos, College Sports Insider
Even if Mateer plays, he won’t be at full strength. And while Arch Manning has shown flashes of potential, he’s still far from consistent. The Sooners have looked sharp all season, and their defense has been relentless. Texas’ playoff hopes could take a major hit right here in Dallas. Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Texas 17.
Tim Cowlishaw, Columnist
Mateer playing hurt is better than Hawkins starting, but it’s still not ideal for Oklahoma. Texas’ defense, despite some recent struggles, is still capable of keeping them in the game. But overall, the Sooners have looked more complete through five weeks. Prediction: Oklahoma 27, Texas 19.
R.J. Coyle, Trending Sports Producer
And this is the part most people miss… Texas’ offensive line has been shaky, and Oklahoma’s pass rush has been dominant — they’ve recorded 14 sacks in their last two games. Arch Manning looked rattled again in Florida, and this matchup won’t be any easier. The Longhorns have dominated the last two meetings, but that streak ends now. Prediction: Oklahoma 48, Texas 23.
Selby Lopez, College Sports Editor
Let’s be honest — Texas’ defense hasn’t been great. They let Florida score 27 points, and that was a team that struggled to move the ball all season. Arch Manning’s inconsistency is another concern. Even without Mateer, Oklahoma’s offense should be able to move the chains. Prediction: Oklahoma 21, Texas 13.
Shawn McFarland, Sports Reporter
But here’s where it gets controversial… Texas’ defense has actually been better than many realize, and they could be the difference-maker in a low-scoring game. Oklahoma may not have Mateer, and their offense hasn’t been explosive. If Texas can limit big plays, they have a real shot. Prediction: Texas 24, Oklahoma 21.
Emma Moon, Sports Intern
Texas hasn’t had a signature win yet, but their defense has been solid — only allowing 12 points per game. If they can continue that level of performance and force some turnovers, they might just pull off the upset. Prediction: Texas 23, Oklahoma 20.
Kevin Sherrington, Columnist
Steve Sarkisian says Mateer plans to start — and if he does, Texas is in real trouble. If he’s healthy, this game wouldn’t even be close. But he’s probably out, and that still doesn’t change the fact that Oklahoma is the better team right now. Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Texas 20.
Brad Townsend, Sports Enterprise Reporter
I thought this might be a grind-it-out defensive slugfest — until I saw how Florida attacked Texas’ front seven. If Mateer plays and is even close to 80% healthy, Oklahoma should win comfortably. Prediction: Oklahoma 21, Texas 16.
So, what’s your take? Is Texas ready to break through with a statement win, or is Oklahoma simply too strong — even without their starter? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
